2006 forecast: fewer major hurricanes predicted

The 2006 hurricane season is expected to include 17 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin, but fewer major hurricanes will make landfall on coastal regions compared to last year, according to a Colorado State University (CSU) forecast.

CSU says nine of the 17 storms predicted for the 2006 hurricane season will likely become hurricanes. The forecasting team at CSU believes five of those nine hurricanes will develop into intense or major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 storms on the Saffir/Simpson scale) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

The hurricane season started on June 1, 2006, and officially ends Nov. 30.

“The Atlantic Ocean remains anomalously warm and neutral ENSO [El Nio-Southern Oscillation] conditions are observed in the tropical Pacific,” CSU hurricane forecast author Phil Klotzbach, says. “We expect neutral ENSO conditions to be present during the upcoming hurricane season. When the tropical Atlantic is warm and neutral ENSO conditions are present, Atlantic basin hurricane activity is usually enhanced.”

Klotzbach believes Nature is causing the change in weather, not human-induced global warming. He says “seasonal and monthly variations of sea surface temperature within individual storm basins show low correlations with monthly, seasonal and yearly variations of hurricane activity.”