2008 ranks as seventh-worst hurricane season in 38 years

To date, this year ranks as the seventh-most active hurricane year since 1950, according to a mid-season report by climate forecaster Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).TSR is a consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at University College London.”Atlantic basin hurricane activity so far has been 100% above-norm,” observed TSR research fellow Dr. Adam Lea, who commented on the 2008 hurricane season so far. “TSR believes this high activity is due to a combination of weaker-than-normal trade winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic, and to warmer-than-normal sea waters between West Africa and the Caribbean.”TSR anticipates a continuation but slight decrease in above-norm activity during September and October.”In mid-season (the hurricane season typically lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30), TSR has revised a previous forecast, calling on U.S.-landfalling activity to be 150% above-norm. TSR’s updated outlook includes:A 97% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, only a 3% probability of a near-normal season and no chance of a below-normal season.An expectation of 18 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with 10 of these being hurricanes and five of these being intense hurricanes. To date, there have been 10 tropical storms, with five of these being hurricanes and three intense hurricanes (the climate norm numbers for the whole season are 10, six and three, respectively). An expectation of seven tropical storm strikes on the United States, of which four will be hurricanes. To date, there have been four tropical storm strikes, of which 2 were hurricanes (the climate norm numbers for the whole season are 3.1 and 1.5 respectively).