Active hurricane season anticipated, fewer land falls

The 2006 hurricane season is expected to see 17 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin but, according to Colorado State University’s (CSU) forecast, fewer major hurricanes will make landfall on coastal regions compared to last year. The U.S. Atlantic basin likely will experience another active hurricane CSU says that for the 2006 hurricane season, which begins on June 1 and ends Nov. 30, nine of the 17 storms will likely become hurricanes. The forecasting team at CSU continues to predict that and five of those nine hurricanes are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.”The Atlantic Ocean remains anomalously warm and neutral ENSO (El Nio – Southern Oscillation) conditions are observed in the tropical Pacific,” Phil Klotzbach, member, CSU hurricane forecast team and lead author on the forecast, says. “We expect neutral ENSO conditions to be present during the upcoming hurricane season. When the tropical Atlantic is warm and neutral ENSO conditions are present, Atlantic basin hurricane activity is usually enhanced.”Klotzbach says that nature is causing the change in weather, not human-induced global warming. He explains that, “seasonal and monthly variations of sea surface temperature within individual storm basins show low correlations with monthly, seasonal and yearly variations of hurricane activity.”The CSU forecast predicts 2006 tropical cyclone activity will be 195% of the average season. By comparison, 2005 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was about 275% of the average season.”If the atmosphere and the ocean behave as they have in the past, we should have a very active season, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into storms that produce as much destruction as last year,” Professor William Gray, leader of the CSU hurricane forecast tea, says.The current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity is expected to continue for another 15 to 20 years. However, Gray says it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006-2007 hurricane seasons, or those that follow, will have the number of major hurricane U.S. landfall events as occurred in 2004-2005.The hurricane forecast team’s says that the probabilities that a major hurricane will make landfall are:* An 82% chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2006 * A 69% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula *A 38% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville “In any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active a season,” Klotzbach says. “The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low. However, low landfall probability does not ensure that hurricanes will not come ashore, so coastal residents should always be prepared.”The team says it also predicts above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.The team will issue seasonal updates of its 2006 Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast on Aug. 3, Sept. 1 and Oct. 3. The report will include separate forecasts for each of those months.