Colorado State downgrades 2006 hurricane predictions

Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast team has downgraded its original 2006 forecast for the Atlantic basin based on changing climate signals and below-average activity in the first third of the season.The forecasting team of Philip Klotzbach and William Gray has released a new report that calls for a total of 13 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin this season.Of these, five are predicted to become hurricanes and two are anticipated to evolve into intense hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson Category 3-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.The new forecast is down from the team’s August forecast of 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and three intense hurricanes.The long-term average is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.”We predict September and October will exhibit characteristics of a more average year based on the activity so far this season and climate signals through August,” Klotzbach said. “Current conditions in the Atlantic indicate that we will now see a slightly below average hurricane season with far less activity than was experienced in each of the last two years.”August 2006 had about average named-storm activity, the researchers noted, but the amount of intense activity was “well below average.”Only one hurricane Hurricane Ernesto – formed during August, and lasted less than one day due to interaction with land. On average, about six hurricane days occur during August.The Colorado State hurricane team’s September-only forecast calls for five named storms, three hurricanes and two major hurricanes. This is slightly above average for September.For October, the team predicted two named storms, one hurricane and no major hurricanes, which is below average.”Despite the lower predictions, residents living along the U.S. coastline should always be prepared for major storms,” Gray said.