Colorado State predicts above-average activity in 2010 hurricane season

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will likely bring above average activity, predicts Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science.In their six- to 11-month, extended-range forecast, Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray estimate a 64% chance of at least one major hurricane (Category 3, 4 or 5) hitting the entire U.S. coastline. The average for last century is 52%.The chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, is 40%, with the average for the last century being 31%.Likewise, the team estimates a major hurricane has a 40% chance of making landfall along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, with the average for the last century being 30%.In general, the long-range forecast predicts between 11 and 16 named storms during the 2010 season, six to eight hurricanes, and between three and five major hurricanes. “At this point, there is too much uncertainty in what large-scale parameters will be in August-October of next year to issue a forecast for specific numbers,” Klotzbach wrote.“However … we believe the odds of a multi-year El Nino event are quite small.”