Eight hurricanes forecast for 2006 season

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) anticipates Atlantic basin and U.S. landfall hurricane activity will be 40% above the long-term (1950-2005) norm in 2006.The TSR prediction includes: A 74% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 22% probability of a near-normal season and only a 4% chance of a below-normal season. An expectation of 14 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole; 8 of these would be hurricanes, including 3 intense hurricanes. A 70% probability of above-normal U.S. landfall hurricane activity, a 22% likelihood of a near-normal season and only an 8% chance of a below-normal season. Four tropical storm strikes on the U.S., of which 2 will be hurricanes.TSR is an award-winning consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London.TSR’s start-of-the-season forecast in 2006 follows its accurate forecasts for the extremely active 2005 and active 2004 hurricane seasons, as well as on-target forecasts for the 2003 (above-average activity) and 2002 (quiet activity) seasons.Professor Mark Saunders is TSR’s lead scientist and head of seasonal forecasting and meteorological hazards at the Benfield Hazard Research Centre. In a press release, he urged ongoing vigilance by governments and citizens.”We are witnessing record levels of Atlantic and U.S. landfall hurricane activity,” Saunders said. “The years 2003 to 2005 have seen the highest three-year total number of U.S. hurricane landfalls (11) since 1900 and the highest three-year total number of North Atlantic hurricanes (31) since reliable records began in 1950. Based on current and projected climate signals, 2006 looks likely to be yet another above-average year for Atlantic hurricanes.”Saunders added, however, that: “Despite this forecast, the chance of 2006 seeing hurricane activity as high as in 2005, which was the most active and destructive season on record, is low. The current forecast is 20% lower than at this time last year. In particular we expect the Gulf of Mexico to witness far fewer intense hurricanes than in 2005.”The key climate factors behind TSR’s forecast for an above-average hurricane season in 2006 are the forecast July-September 2006 trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2006 sea-surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic. The trade wind speeds influence cyclonic vorticity (the spinning up of storms) in the main hurricane track region. The sea-surface temperatures provide heat and moisture to power incipient storms.