El Nino conditions moderate 2006 hurricane season: NOAA (October 05, 2006)

Scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center have observed that El Nio conditions which affect the intensity of hurricanes have developed in the tropical Pacific and are likely to continue into early 2007.”The development of weak El Nio conditions helps explain why this Atlantic hurricane season has been less active than was previously expected,” the NOAA announced in a press release. “El Nio typically acts to suppress hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea region. However, at this time the El Nio impacts on Atlantic hurricanes are small.”The term El Nio refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately the date line and 120 degrees west). It originally referred to an annual warming of sea surface temperatures along the west coast of tropical South America.Ocean temperatures “increased remarkably” in the equatorial Pacific during the last two weeks, according to the NOAA.”Currently, weak El Nio conditions exist, but there is a potential for this event to strengthen into a moderate event by winter,” said Vernon Kousky, NOAA’s lead El Nio forecaster. Some effects of the developing El Nio are already evident in the pattern of tropical precipitation, the NOAA noted in a press release. “During the last 30 days, drier-than-average conditions have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience [El Nio]-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006. “Typical El Nio effects are likely to develop over North America during the upcoming winter season. These include warmer-than-average temperatures over western and central Canada, and over the western and northern United States.