EQECAT predicts US$3-$18 billion loss if Ivan hits Florida

Risk modeling firm EQECAT says if Hurricane Ivan hits the Florida coastline, insured damages could be US$3-$18 billion, depending on the storm’s intensity and where it makes landfall.Ivan is currently a category 4-5 storm, and has already done an estimated US$2 billion-plus in damage in the Caribbean. The storm ripped through Jamaica, Grenada and the Cayman Islands. It will take days before Ivan reaches Florida’s coast, but based on current predictions by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), it would likely hit the Gulf Coast between Tampa Bay and Pensacola. “If the storm makes landfall between Cedar Key and Tampa Bay, the expected losses could exceed $18 billion. If it makes landfall between Cedar Key and Tallahassee, losses could exceed $4 billion. A landfall between Tallahassee and Ft. Walton Beach could incur losses exceeding $3 billion, and a landfall between Ft. Walton Beach and Pensacola could cause losses exceeding $6 billion,” notes an EQECAT release.Some of these areas are still cleaning up the aftermath of Hurricane Frances (mid-August) and Hurricane Charley (early September).