Forecast of hurricane severity decreased

The hurricane forecast for 2006 has been revised from Tropical Storm Risk’s original prediction of above-average activity to slightly below-normal activity.The London-based group of insurance, risk management and seasonal climate experts, led by the Benfield centre, say the new forecast indicates hurricane activity will be 10% below what has been the norm from 1950-2005. This new outlook is a far departure from the group original statement that indicated hurricane activity would be 40% above the norm for the same period.This revision to a hurricane prediction is the first time Tropical Storm Risk marked has been required to reduce an earlier forecast by such a great degree.According to professor Mark Saunders, the TSR lead scientist and head of seasonal forecasting and meteorological hazards at the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London, said in a media interview with Business Insurance that “the forecast has been revised in response to ‘unexpected and influential presence’ of dry air and Saharan dust blowing off Africa over the main hurricane development region between the west coast of Africa and the Caribbean.”According to Tropical Storm Risk, the new forecast is 13 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin, with six of becoming hurricanes and two becoming intense hurricanes. This is a slight reduction from the original forecast of15 storms, with eight of these becoming hurricanes and three to four becoming intense hurricanes. Currently the 2006 Hurricane season has seen six tropical storms, with two being hurricanes.Tropical Storm Risk says it will use modeling to identify why the dry air and dust appears to be affecting the storm season this year as, in the past hurricane seasons it has not appeared to be a significant factor.