Gray team predicts another above-average U.S. hurricane season

On the heels of last year’s unprecedented Atlantic hurricane season, well-known forecaster Prof. William Gray is anticipating another stormy season for 2005.Gray and his team of researchers at Colorado State University say 2005 will likely see above-average hurricane activity during the Atlantic season, which generally runs from June to November. They are also predicting above-average U.S. landfall for hurricanes, with both forecasts upped since predictions released in December, 2004.Net tropical cyclone activity is predicted to be 135% of the long-term average. In all, the Gray team anticipates 13 named storms, with 7 hurricanes in 2005. Three of these could develop into intense hurricanes, with a 73% chance of at least one major hurricane (category 3 or greater) hitting the U.S. coast. The forecast includes above-average probability of landfall for the entire U.S. coast, Florida in particular, and for the Caribbean as well.Part of the reason for the forecast is the reduced change of a significant El Nino event which could reduce the number of hurricanes. The Gray team notes that their predictions could potentially be upwardly revised even further if indications of no significant El Nino activity persist. The team also notes that the upswing in hurricane activity since 1995 cannot be linked to global warming, as this would produce similar increases in tropical cyclone activity in other storm basins around the globe, which has not been the case. Of last year’s major Atlantic hurricane and Japanese typhoon activity, the team says this was the result of anamolies, rather than evidence of global warming. “Such high U.S. and Japan landfalls events of last year should in no way be associated with the human-induced global warming hypothesis,” the report says.The next forecast is expected on May 31, to coincide with the start of the hurricane season.