Guy Carpenter predicts increased hurricane landfall rate in Northeast U.S.

Guy Carpenter’s 2010 forecast hurricane landfall rate for the Northeast region of the U.S. is more than double the average landfall rate for the region.GC ForeCat, a product developed by Guy Carpenter in collaboration with WSI Corporation, provides pre-season hurricane (and associated tropical cyclone) landfall forecast rates for different regions along the United States coastline. According to its March update, the Northeast region’s forecasted landfall rate jumped from 0.29 in February to 0.62 in March. The 1951-2007 average landfall rate is 0.29.The Northeast region extends from Cape Hatteras up the coast to Maine).The Southeast (coastline from Atlantic Florida-Georgia border to Cape Hatteras) remains the most vulnerable to tropical cyclones coming ashore in the U.S. in 2010, GC ForeCat predicts. The region has a 0.74 forecasted landfall rate, compared to the 1951-2007 average landfall rate of 0.41.Meanwhile, the forecasts for Florida and the Gulf regions were unchanged and continue to show landfall rates of 0.60 (above the 0.49 average) and 0.59 (below the 0.66 average).