Hurricane predictions revised

Two groups issuing predictions for the Atlantic hurricane season have updated their forecasts. Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), part of the Benfield Hazard Research Centre, increased its forecast by 20%. It says the 2004 season shows signs of being 150% of average, with 14 tropical storms and eight of these intensifying into hurricanes. Three will be intense hurricanes.In the U.S., TSR predicts there will be four tropical storms with two becoming hurricanes. “Enhanced hurricane activity occurs with weaker than normal trades and with warmer than normal waters,” explains TSR lead scientist Dr. Mark Saunders.The Colorado State University team led by Professor William Gray has downgraded its forecast for the season to 13 named storms and seven hurricanes. It does predict three intense hurricanes during the season. Tropical cyclone activity should be 125% of average.”As of early August, it appears that warm neutral or weak warm ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) conditions are likely for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season. These conditions are expected to bring about a small diminution of Atlantic hurricane activity from that predicted by our early April and late May forecasts,” the report notes.