Hurricane season outpaced predictions: Gray

The 2004 Atlantic hurricane season was much worse than anticipated, but will taper off through October, according to the latest predictions by Prof. William Gray and the University of Colorado department of atmospheric science team.Both August and September outpaced expectations, the team reports. While the revised August forecast predicted three hurricanes and eight hurricane days, four hurricanes actually occurred that month, for a total of 15 hurricane days one of the most active Augusts on record, the report notes.In September, the forecast for three hurricanes was spot on, but the number of hurricane days, expected to be 20, was actually over 29. “As of 1 October, the 2004 hurricane season has been more than twice as active as the full-season average from 1950-2000.” In total, the 2004 season has seen 12 named storms, seven hurricanes and six major hurricanes, three of which made landfall (Charley, Ivan and Jeanne), with Frances a category-2 hurricane when it made landfall. These storms also lasted relatively long, including Frances at 7.25 intense days, and Ivan at 10 days, the longest for any single tropical cyclone since 1900.The damage wrought by these storms was also intense, with the four major storms producing an estimated US$22.5 billion in insured losses and US$45 billion in overall economic damages.But some relief is predicted for October, with no expectation of a major hurricane, although there may be two smaller hurricanes and three named storms. There is still an above historical average likelihood of some of this activity making landfall in the Caribbean or U.S.