Intact’s estimate for Jasper and Toronto NatCat losses

Although it anticipates significant losses from July’s two major Cat events, Intact remains “comfortable” with its full-year catastrophe loss estimate of $900 million. 

That’s because this year’s second quarter — which predates typically active summer months for natural disasters — didn’t contribute much by way of catastrophe losses, Intact executives said during their 2024 Q2 earnings call last week. 

Thus far, the insurer’s catastrophe losses sit at $193 million in the first quarter of 2024, and $96 million in the second, said Louis Marcotte, Intact’s executive vice president and chief financial officer. Last year, Intact’s third-quarter catastrophe losses tallied more than $600 million. 

“While [Intact’s 2024 Q1 and Q2 Cat losses are] below expectations, we still have six months to go with ‘24,” Marcotte said. “We have the recent floods in Toronto, and we are also monitoring the impact of the forest fires in Jasper, Alberta. 

“Although we expect significant losses from these two events, we remain comfortable with our guidance of $900 million on an annual basis,” said Marcotte.

Patrick Barbeau, Intact’s executive vice president and chief operating officer, said the Alberta wildfires, which have been ongoing since late July, have affected about 35% of its insureds in Jasper.  

“We insure about 700 families and businesses in the area that have been evacuated, and we estimate that around 250 or so have very likely suffered significant damage at this point,” he said.  

Of the town’s 1,113 structures, 358 were destroyed in the wildfires, according to a preliminary estimate officials. 

Barbeau said Intact’s adjusters don’t have direct access to the site yet, but “thanks to WDS [Wildfire Defense Systems] who are on the ground, we’ve received some information. We have, also, other sources of mapping and imagery that help us have a reasonably good understanding of the extent of the damage.” 

Fire officials say they’ve made progress since blazes descended on the resort town. 

Southwestern parts of the town show the most destruction or visible damage, according to a late-July damage assessment map by Parks Canada. 

The wildfire is estimated at 34,000 hectares, Parks Canada said in an update Monday. Evacuation orders are still in place, though Municipality of Jasper’s re-entry plan is underway.  

In Toronto, a severe storm that hit downtown core with 98 mm of rain in a few short hours was the first major weather event the company responded to this year, Barbeau said. Industry officials say damages could surpass $1 billion for the mid-July storm, though official estimates remain to be seen.  

“It’s very interesting for me to see that three quarters of all the files in the Toronto area are being handled by Onside [Restoration], which is by far the most files they’ve taken on any single event since we acquired them a few years ago,” Barbeau said.  

 

Property premiums grow 

Intact’s personal property premiums grew by 9% in the second quarter of this year. 

CEO Charles Brindamour said the positive results were due to “excellent underlying performance” across all lines of business, as well as solid growth in the company’s distribution channel and investment income. 

The quarter’s combined ratio sits at a “very strong” 78%, which Intact partially credits to low seasonal Cat losses.  

But even with imminent Cat losses in this current quarter, Intact predicts industry personal property and auto premium could grow to double-digits, as favourable market conditions continue. 

 

 

The remains of a Petro Canada gas station in Jasper, Alta., on Friday July 26, 2024. Wildfires encroaching into the townsite of Jasper forced an evacuation of the national park and have destroyed over 300 of the town’s approximately 1100 structures, mainly impacting residential areas. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Amber Bracken