Long-range, 2008 forecast predicts 13 storms, three major hurricanes next season

Colorado State University (CSU)’s Tropical Meteorology Project is calling for somewhat above-average Atlantic basin hurricane activity in 2008.A new report provides the team’s first extended-range forecast for the 2008 hurricane season. It anticipates 13 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30.Seven of the 13 storms are predicted to become hurricanes; of those seven, three are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes (Category 3-5).Last year, CSU estimated 2007 would have about 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes (average is 5.9) and at least one that would hit the U.S. coast. But in an overview of the 2007 season (now concluded), the National Hurricane Centre reported 14 named storms, of which only six became hurricanes. Similarly, CSU in 2006 estimated 17 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin during hurricane season, with nine becoming hurricanes and five developing into intense or major (Category 3-5) hurricanes. But El Nino conditions shifted: in reality, only nine named storms formed during the 2006 season, the fewest since 1997. Five of them became major hurricanes, and only two of them became major (and none of them made landfall in the United States).Nevertheless, “despite fairly inactive 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, we believe that the Atlantic basin is still in an active hurricane cycle,” according to one of the project’s co-leaders, William Gray. “This active cycle is expected to continue at least for another decade or two. “After that, we’re likely to enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter-century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925.”The CSU hurricane forecast team also predicts a 60% chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2008. The long-term average probability is 52%.