Prof. Gray predicts another bad hurricane season for 2005

As insurers continue to deal with the record hurricane season of 2004, they will also be gearing up for another potentially bad season in 2005.Prof. William Gray and his team of researchers from Colorado State University are predicting another above-average hurricane season for 2005, with the above-average probability of major hurricane landfall in the U.S. That said, Gray says 2005 should not approach the devastation of 2004, when four major hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne wreaked havoc on Florida and other southern states.For 2005 researchers predict 11 named storms and 6 hurricanes, three of which would be categorized as intense (Category 3-5 on the Saffir-Sampson scale). Net tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin will be 115% of the historical average.The probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall is 69% for the entire U.S. coastline (compared to a historical average of 52%), while the probability for the east coast including Florida to receive a major hurricane is 49% (compared to a historical average of 31%).The Gray team says increased Atlantic hurricane activity will likely persist through the early decades of the 21st century. The increase, which has been taking place since 1994, generally runs in 25-50 year cycles, with 1970-1994 representing periods of diminished activity. 2004 recorded the highest number of “intense hurricane days” in the past decade, at 23. Net tropical cyclone activity for 2004 was 231%, versus the historical average of 100%.However, the Gray team stresses that the 2004 Atlantic hurricane and Pacific typhoon seasons were attributed to climactic anomalies and not to the global warming hypothesis.