Researchers increase probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall

Researchers at Colorado State University are predicting an above-average probability of a major hurricane landfall in the United States in 2008.Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers in the university’s department of atmospheric science, foresee a “well-above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season” in their 2008 extended forecast.The team predicts 15 named storms in 2008, increasing from Dec. 2007’s prediction of 13.The number of predicted hurricanes increased from seven to eight; the prediction for intense hurricanes increased from three to four.The probabilities for at least one major (Category 3-5) hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas are:-entire U.S. coastline, 69% (average for last century is 52%);-U.S. east coast, including peninsula Florida, 45% (average for last century is 31%);-Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, 44% (average for last century is 30%); and-above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.Despite the global warming of the sea surface that has taken place over the past 30 years, global hurricanes have not decreased in number or intensity in recent years, except for in the Atlantic, Klotzbach wrote in the report.Although the Atlantic has seen a very large increase in major hurricanes during the 13-year period of 1995-2007 (average 3.8 per year) in comparison, the past 25 years have seen an average of 1.5 per year this large increase in Atlantic major hurricanes is not directly related to global temperature increase, he said.