RMS predicts increased storm activity in 2007

Risk Management Solutions Inc. (RMS) has predicted above-average activity during the 2007 tropical storm season, due to the dissipation of last years El Nino condition and a potential El Nina event on the horizon. Authors of the white paper 2007 Hurricane Season Outlook note that all major forecasting groups, including Tropical Storm Risks (TSR), the Climate Prediction Center and Colorado State University, predict an active 2007 hurricane season, reminiscent of forecasts made at the beginning of 2006s season.The poorly predicted 2006 season was a result of unforeseen climatological factors, notably a late developing El Nino and excess dry air over the Atlantic Ocean, write the researchers.In September 2006 RMS gathered hurricane experts in a roundtable, and the consensus that the period of elevated activity witnessed in the Atlantic Basin since 1995 is expected to last for a period significantly longer than the next five years (the medium term perspective). At the same time, it was recognized that not all individual years in the next decade are expected to be more active than average, as seasonal activity depends on various climatological factors, such as the state of ENSO [El Nino/southern oscillation], note the researchers.