Scientists a step closer to the possibility of predicting earthquakes

Scientists have measured changes in the speed of seismic waves that preceded two small earthquakes by 10 and two hours, allowing them to further develop a technique to predict future quakes, reports the Carnegie Institution for Science.”Detecting stress changes before an earthquake has been the Holy Grail in earthquake seismology for years and has motivated our research,” said study co-author Paul Silver.Silver, of the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Terrestrial Magnetism, and Rice University’s Fenglin Niu, lead author of the study, used a specially designed system to generate and record seismic waves before, during and after two earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. “Measurements of changes in wave speed should, in principle, constitute a ‘stress meter’ that could provide an indication of an imminent earthquake,” Silver said.”Because we use seismic waves, this allows us to measure changes deep in the crust where earthquakes occur that may be more difficult to observe by conventional surface instruments,” said Niu. “We are very encouraged by these pre-seismic signals and are planning a series of experiments to expand on them, so that we may further understand their timing and physical basis,” Niu added.Niu and Silver’s research is published in the July 10 issue of Nature.