TSR moderates its 2008 hurricane season forecast

With the 2008 hurricane season officially underway, forecaster Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) is predicting Atlantic basin and U.S. land-falling hurricane activity in 2008 will be slightly (20%) above the long-term (1950-2007) norm. This updates the 35% above-norm prediction TSR issued on Apr. 7, 2008. “The lowering of the forecast is due to the unexpected rapid waning of La Nia conditions now occurring in the tropical Pacific,” TSR noted in a press release. “However, uncertainties remain and La Nia and other key climate factors will be closely monitored.”TSR’s pre-season hurricane prediction includes 14 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with seven of these being hurricanes and three intense (Category 3-5) hurricanes. This compares to long-term norm values of 10, six and three respectively.TSR predicts four tropical storm strikes on the United States in 2008, of which two will be hurricanes.In a TSR press release, professor Mark Saunders, TSR lead scientist and head of the weather and climate extremes section of the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, allayed concerns that the 2008 season would resemble the busy seasons of 2004-05.The 2004-05 U.S. hurricane seasons saw nine hurricanes strike the United States.”A repeat of the devastation seen in 2004 and 2005 is most unlikely,” Saunders said. “The more likely scenario is that 2008 will produce US land-falling activity close to the 1995-2007 norm level.”