TSR predicts 2007 hurricane season will be much worse than 2006

A return to high hurricane activity in 2007 will likely follow the below-average 2006 hurricane season, according to climate forecaster Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).TSR says a 76% likelihood exists that U.S. land-falling hurricane activity in 2007 will fall among the top one-third of years historically.The study was led by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at College University London. Some of TSR’s long-range hurricane predictions include: a 79% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 15% probability of a near-normal season and only a 6% chance of a below-normal season; 16 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with nine of these being hurricanes and four intense hurricanes; and five tropical storm strikes on the U.S., two of which will be hurricanes.One factor influencing TSR’s 2007 hurricane forecast includes the expected values in August and September for the speed of trade winds that blow westward across the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea.In addition, the temperatures of the seawaters between West Africa and the Caribbean, where many of the hurricanes develop, will play a role.TSR lead scientist Mark Saunders noted that “the 2006 hurricane season is atypical of years since 1950 and should not reflect badly on the general capability of forecasts. “The below-average 2006 hurricane season was due to the presence of considerable African dry air and Saharan dust during August and September, which inhibited thunderstorm occurrence and therefore tropical storm development,” TSR noted.Also, TSR pointed to the unexpected onset of El Nio conditions from mid-September. “There is no precedent for these factors together having been so influential before.”