TSR revises hurricane forecast, predicts stronger season

Based on current and projected climate signals, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has increased its outlook for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2008. TSR predicts Atlantic basin and U.S. landfalling hurricane activity in 2008 will be 90% above the long-term norm, as compared to the 35% above-norm predictions issued on July 4, 2008, according to a Benfield release. “The forecast has risen due to the establishment in July of tropospheric wind patterns which favour increased hurricane activity,” the release notes. “Once formed, these anomalous winds tend to persist through the main hurricane months of August and September.” The updated prediction, according to the release, includes: A 97% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 3% probability of a near-normal season and a negligible chance of a below-normal season.18 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with nine of these being hurricanes and four or five of these hurricanes being intense in category. This compares to long-term norm values of 10, six and three respectively.A 91% probability of above-normal U.S. landfalling hurricane activity, an 8% likelihood of a near-normal season and only a 1% chance of a below-normal season.Five tropical storm strikes on the United States, of which two will be hurricanes.One hurricane strike on the Caribbean Lesser Antilles.If the prediction holds to be true, the total of 18 tropical storms would be the equal third-highest total recorded in a North Atlantic season since 1950, the release notes.