Up to 16 named storms, NOAA predicts

There is a 90% chance of a near-normal or above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin in 2008, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climate prediction centre. An average season has 11 named storms including six hurricanes, of which two reach major (Category 3-5) status. Considerable activity is projected, with a 65% probability of an above-normal season and a 25% probably of a near-normal season, according to a release. The outlook points to a 60-70% chance of between 12 and 16 named storms. This would include between six and nine hurricanes and between two and five major hurricanes, according to the NOAA. The main factors influencing the seasonal outlook for 2008 include the continuing multi-decadal signal, which is the combination of ocean and atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995, and the anticipated lingering effects of La Nia, according to Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s climate prediction centre. “Living in a coastal state means having a plan for each and every hurricane season,” Conrad C. Lautenbacher, NOAA administrator, said in the release. “Review or complete emergency plans now before a storm threatens. Planning and preparation is the key to storm survival and recovery.”