Results for the property and casualty insurance industry are expected to be stronger than anticipated for 2004 despite the fact that the industry’s performance will degrade over the next three years, according to Clint Harris, analyst at Conning Research and Consulting, Inc.The report “Property-Casualty Forecast & Analysis by Line of Insurance-Second Quarter 2005” released by Conning offers a forecast for 2007 indicating lower premium growth in lieu of increasing competition. This growth will be spurred by “moderately strong economic growth and the growing impact of information technology, in the form of underwriting models in personal lines and small commercial business,” according to Stephan Christiansen, director of research at Conning, which he says will temper the effect of competitive pricing. Christiansen adds that economic growth will also create some upward pressure on loss costs due to line-specific inflation. Significant additions to loss reserves at the industry level, other than for asbestos, are not anticipated according to the report.
Strong p&c industry results anticipated