2007 research focuses on abrupt climate change, or “flipping”

Reinsurance and risk intermediary Benfield and reinsurer Partner Re have collaborated to produce the Hazard & Risk Science Review 2007, summarizing research findings and conclusions of hazard and risk science papers published in the last 12 months that are most relevant to the insurance and resinsurance markets.

Among the many debates cited in the review, one that comes up many times is “flipping” or “abrupt climate change.” The terms refer to the potentially threatening effects on our climate caused by the melting polar ice sheets.

The review notes research on “flipping” has been contested, but nevertheless appeared to be a focus of researchers in 2007.

The review notes research published in 2007 by the Intergovern-mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which reports that best-estimate temperature changes for a high-emissions scenario would be a 4 degree Celcius increase by 2100.

Research on the effects of the melting polar ice caps, however, suggests IPCC estimates may be too conservative, the review notes. “The IPCC reports do not address certain critical issues, most notably the future behaviour of the polar ice sheets, which present the threat of catastrophic melting contributing to substantial and rapid sea-level rises in this century.”

According to research cited in the Review, seawaters generated by the melting polar ice caps could in turn lead to a “rapid flipping of the Earth’s climate from one state to another.” This is in part because sea level rises in the past “were at least partly driven by meltwater facilitating ice sheet break-up by lubricating ice sheet motion, a mechanism that seems to be driving the current rapid acceleration of [melting] polar glaciers “