Award-winning forecaster predicts active storm season

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) anticipates Atlantic basin and U.S. landfall hurricane activity will be 40% above the long-term (1950-2005) norm in 2006.

The TSR prediction includes:

* A 74% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 22% probability of a near-normal season and only a 4% chance of a below-normal season.

* An expectation of 14 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole; 8 of these would be hurricanes, including three intense hurricanes.

* A 70% probability of above-normal U.S. landfall hurricane activity, a 22% likelihood of a near-normal season and only an 8% chance of a below-normal season.

* Four tropical storm strikes on the U.S., of which two will be hurricanes.

TSR is an award-winning consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London.

The key climate factors behind TSR’s forecast for an above-average hurricane season in 2006 are the forecast July-September 2006 trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2006 sea-surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic.

The trade wind speeds influence cyclonic vorticity (the spinning up of storms) in the main hurricane track region. The sea-surface temperatures provide heat and moisture to power incipient storms.