Climate Models Capable of Predicting Hurricane Frequency As Far As 10 Years Ahead

Climate models may be able to predict the frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes as far as 10 years ahead, well beyond the current seasonal timescale, Lloyd’s of London has reported.

Lloyd’s awarded its inaugural Science of Risk Prize to Doug Smith of the U.K.’s Met Office for the finding. Smith’s research paper, Skilful Multi-year Predictions of Atlantic Hurricane

Frequency, was published in the journal Nature Geoscience.

“Our study is important for understanding the mechanisms of multi-year hurricane variability, and for the first time, we demonstrate a capability to make skilful predictions of hurricane frequency beyond the next season.” The research noted a dramatic increase in hurricane activity since the mid-1990s, compared with a quiet period in the 1970s. “The research showed that this was at least partly because of external factors like greenhouse gases and aerosols and natural variations of solar radiation and volcanic activity,” Smith said.

PREDICTING EARTHQUAKE RISK SOONER

Researchers in Canada are closer to predicting increased earthquake risk over periods as short as five to 10 years.

A new physics-based method suggests potential seismic activity over the next five years near Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City. Over the next eight years, it suggests potentially significant seismic activity in British Columbia in Richmond, Delta and north of Vancouver.

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